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JAXA Sets Oct. 21 H3 Launch for New HTV-X ISS Cargo Craft

5

6 months ago

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10%chance

2312004434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3821

1379

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

46.61%chance

20751812014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4643

4058

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1341061015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.04%chance

967737048

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10126

9776

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

87.08%chance

319722195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259828

38283

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

555496084

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3489

1137

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

45%chance

231391548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6865

2234

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

56.47%chance

161342158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

878

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

47%chance

242199053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

1010

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

61.39%chance

253131777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

794

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38%chance

18689109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11958

4561

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

7173329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24807

4031

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Aug 22, 2025
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JAXA Sets Oct. 21 H3 Launch for New HTV-X ISS Cargo Craft
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