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Prediction markets for by
OptionVotes
2858
1508
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
42.8%chance
21791948676
OptionVotes
5016
3757
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.68%chance
985744202
OptionVotes
10678
9273
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81%chance
501720246
OptionVotes
16300
14168
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.2%chance
619656382
OptionVotes
5632
4083
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
88.48%chance
336644389
OptionVotes
11092
3630
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.66%chance
834517250
OptionVotes
59065
10415
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
66%chance
286265221
OptionVotes
1721
641
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM
82.65%chance
415213145
OptionVotes
16507
7941
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?
Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
60.65%chance
4765967
OptionVotes
130486
84436
OptionVotes
10424
9668
OptionVotes
1444
693