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Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?
Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
2.81%chance
1279603195
OptionVotes
656217
28211
OptionVotes
2682
1537
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
44%chance
20031595840
OptionVotes
4892
3847
CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by Dec 1, 2025?
Aug 11, 9:50 AMDec 15, 11:59 PM
2.12%chance
1331496402
OptionVotes
679324
14721
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.45%chance
958695692
OptionVotes
10084
9803
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
12.63%chance
802467730
OptionVotes
48915
11661
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?
Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
44.8%chance
202330854
OptionVotes
110653
90434
OptionVotes
3620
1080
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
59.04%chance
194268635
OptionVotes
5839
3348
Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?
Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
84.85%chance
120243647
OptionVotes
139948
27580
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
46%chance
232195052
OptionVotes
1215
1031
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
26.15%chance
17160323
OptionVotes
10776
7116