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Prediction markets for Cannes
Will Cannibis be federally legalized in America by 2026?
Aug 28, 8:56 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
3.39%chance
9634146
OptionVotes
5415
555
Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in cannibalism?
Feb 15, 6:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM
6.43%chance
497231
OptionVotes
3816
262
Will Trump sign any cannabis-related legislation during his second term?
Dec 6, 2:40 AMJan 22, 5:59 AM
71.34%chance
565159
OptionVotes
1578
634
Will a right to digital privacy be established in the USA saying your AI cannot be used against you in a court of law?
May 6, 11:40 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
10%chance
261713
OptionVotes
1530
1005
Will Aileen Cannon be confirmed to the Supreme Court by 2029?
Jul 15, 4:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
16.93%chance
151555
OptionVotes
2215
452
OptionVotes
1880
532
In which year will France legalize recreational usage of cannabis ?
Mar 22, 9:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM
36.36%chance
13414
OptionProbability
500
301
Will "Do not conquer what you cannot defend" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 16, 9:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
28.97%chance
6310
OptionVotes
1137
454
Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?
Jul 21, 4:28 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM
20.36%chance
19293
OptionVotes
1188
949
Will "Do not hand off what you cannot pick up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 13, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.32%chance
271
OptionVotes
1051
992
How many films from the 2026 Cannes Film Festival Competition will receive an Academy Award nomination?
May 23, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
266
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20
Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 15, 9:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.35%chance
26
OptionVotes
1004
976