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Carnival News

    Prediction markets for Carnival

    OptionProbability

    Gunplay

    On screen fatalities

    Bond will be a man

    Bond drives a car

    Urban scene

    Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

    London will appear on screen

    World capital other than London appears on screen

    Car chase scene

    Bond tells ≥1 joke

    Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

    A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

    A named character speaks in a language other than English

    Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

    Bond drinks a martini

    Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

    Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

    Blue-eyed Bond

    Opening action sequence

    The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

    Gun Barrel Sequence

    Sex scene

    Q appears

    Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

    Hacking electronics of some form

    Bond uses explosives

    The plot will be predominantly set in present day

    Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

    The main theme song will be sung by a female

    The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

    Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

    A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

    Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

    Asia will appear on screen

    It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

    Someone goes through a pane of glass

    A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

    "King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

    Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

    Someone in the movie says the title

    @HenriThunberg enjoys the film

    The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

    >= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

    The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

    Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

    South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

    The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

    Bond rides a motorcycle

    James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

    Bond and a pond shown on screen together

    Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

    Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

    A sniper rifle is fired

    At least a portion filmed in Canada

    There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

    Bond wields a Walther PPK

    Interracial sex scene

    Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

    Jungle / forest scene

    >=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

    Bond flys an aircraft

    It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

    Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

    Casino game scene

    Bond parachutes

    Bond wears shorts

    Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

    >=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

    Arctic scene

    Bond gets slapped

    M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

    Prison/jail scene

    Black market trafficking

    A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

    Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

    Released in 2028

    The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

    A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

    Bond licks something

    It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

    someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

    Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

    Bond slaps someone

    A scene shows James Bond naked

    Skydiving

    Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

    Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

    Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

    There will be a voiced character that is an AI

    Bond rides a bicycle

    Torture

    James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

    A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

    @brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

    Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

    Bond drives a boat

    A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

    Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

    Bond commits arson

    Bond receives a gunshot wound

    Oral sex

    The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

    Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

    Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

    Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

    Bond has facial hair

    Terrorists

    Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

    US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

    Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

    The title will refer to life and/or death

    A safe is cracked (any means possible)

    Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

    Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

    Desert scene

    A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

    Ski chase scene

    Drug use

    Someone/something is x-rayed

    Thunderstorm

    Dessert scene

    An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    President of the United States is mentioned

    IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

    Robots

    Death of a Bond love interest

    James Bond plays poker

    It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

    There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

    Bond wears a mask

    Sharks

    Wilhelm scream

    Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

    Bond will be in a submarine

    James Bond plays baccarat

    Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

    Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

    Bond is LQBTQ+

    James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

    Bond has a disability

    Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

    Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

    Jetpack

    Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

    Bond rides an animal

    Nazis (neo- counts)

    An EMP device plays a central role.

    At least one named character below 18 years old

    Canada is shown on screen

    Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

    Orgy

    Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

    Underwater combat

    The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

    Main villain speaks Russian on screen

    The word "fuck" is said more than once.

    Mexico is shown on screen

    Cryptocurrency is referenced

    With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

    Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

    Bond is blond

    A hamburger appears on screen

    Assplay

    Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

    Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

    Bond uses a VR headset

    Bond has a neck tattoo

    Will feature something that can turn invisible

    Bond goes to space

    Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

    A pinball machine will appear.

    Gay sex scene

    The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

    Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

    Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

    Pirates

    Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

    A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

    Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

    San Francisco is shown on screen

    Pegging

    Bond plays Russian roulette

    Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

    Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

    Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

    Satanism

    Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

    A clocks shows the time 4:20

    Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

    It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

    Feature Nightcore music

    Bond uses chopsticks

    Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

    Supernatural entities

    There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

    Nuclear explosion

    Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

    Any character says the word "anime"

    Emilia Clarke portrays a character

    Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

    Vampires

    Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

    fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

    Bond vapes

    Bond won't be Caucasian

    The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

    Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

    A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    Scat play

    Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

    Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

    Horse cock on screen (erect)

    Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

    Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

    The handkerchief code is a major plot element

    James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

    ChatGPT is referenced by any character

    It will be directed by a woman

    Bond dies

    Bond plays League of Legends

    Destiny appears on screen

    Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

    The fourth wall is broken

    Dragons

    Dinosaurs

    It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

    Bond is vegan

    Released in 2026

    Bond hits the griddy

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    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    169

    59

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