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Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
May 19, 5:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.98%chance
1237577
OptionVotes
3011
2569
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
Nov 14, 2:24 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM
21.91%chance
141333
OptionVotes
177
152
The USA loses an aircraft carrier anytime til EOY 2028
Jul 13, 5:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
11.75%chance
12857
OptionVotes
1420
915
Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033
Jan 1, 11:35 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM
17.16%chance
21555
OptionVotes
1191
938
OptionVotes
218
54
Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?
Mar 13, 1:20 PMMar 20, 3:59 PM
78.73%chance
7175
OptionVotes
355
126
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?
Nov 14, 2:28 PMJan 3, 4:00 AM
41.39%chance
10159
OptionVotes
113
106
Will hypersonic missile(s) sink a US aircraft carrier by 2030?
May 19, 4:38 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
12.19%chance
8130
OptionVotes
212
121
OptionVotes
97
83
Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?
Jan 1, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
64.57%chance
461
OptionVotes
135
74
Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Sep 30, 1:20 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
47.39%chance
120
OptionVotes
70
70
Will the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Sep 30, 1:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
50.99%chance
11
OptionVotes
71
69
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