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Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
May 19, 5:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.34%chance
1257897
OptionVotes
2959
2889
OptionVotes
1400
36
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
Nov 14, 2:24 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM
18.09%chance
151368
OptionVotes
212
143
The USA loses an aircraft carrier anytime til EOY 2028
Jul 13, 5:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
11.29%chance
13930
OptionVotes
1474
908
China has nuclear-powered carrier in service by end 2040?
Sep 19, 5:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.31%chance
9568
OptionVotes
1403
713
Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033
Jan 1, 11:35 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM
17.16%chance
21555
OptionVotes
1191
938
OptionProbability
85
8
2
2
1
1
1
1
Will China launch nine aircraft carriers by the end of 2035?
Dec 24, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19%chance
11383
OptionVotes
206
48
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?
Nov 14, 2:28 PMJan 3, 4:00 AM
41.39%chance
10159
OptionVotes
113
106
Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?
Jan 1, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
64.57%chance
461
OptionVotes
135
74
Will the USA's CVN-81 "Doris Miller" Aircraft Carrier be launched and commissioned by the end of 2032 as planned?
Nov 27, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
46.93%chance
533
OptionVotes
113
105
Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Sep 30, 1:20 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
47.39%chance
120
OptionVotes
70
70
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