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Prediction markets for Cascade
What will be true of the Homestuck SpindleRoo animated adaptation?
Aug 9, 8:17 PMApr 13, 8:10 PM
139654
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
86
80
63
62
59
59
56
55
55
54
52
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
45
31
30
28
10
0
0
0
OptionProbability
100
100
43
17
0
0
0
0
0
Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?
Aug 9, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.52%chance
131556
OptionVotes
2248
445
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
Oct 21, 8:48 PMOct 29, 3:59 AM
23.87%chance
17747
OptionVotes
1042
660
Will the Cascadia subduction zone experience a Megathrust earthquake before 2050?
Sep 6, 6:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
45.96%chance
13331
OptionVotes
195
191
Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?
Jun 22, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.65%chance
595
OptionVotes
120
69
Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?
Apr 24, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.43%chance
691
OptionVotes
151
66
What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?
Apr 6, 2:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
571
OptionProbability
49
29
12
9
OptionVotes
222
196
OptionProbability
59
14
14
14
Will Lada Nuzhna visit Cascadia (Washington/Oregon/British Columbia) by EOY2030?
Jul 30, 3:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
122
OptionVotes
100
100
Will windsurf OR cursor sync up cascade memories BETWEEN computers by EOY2026
Jan 26, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.55%chance
215
OptionVotes
105
95
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