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Cascade News

    Prediction markets for Cascade

    OptionProbability

    @Robincvgr will think the pilot is good

    A poll of Manifold users will think the pilot is good (tie = NO)

    All beta trolls appear

    Toby Fox voices John in the pilot

    Any troll other than Karkat appears in the pilot

    Any troll appears in the pilot

    We see a troll "in person" before or simultaneously with a troll contacting a human

    Toby Fox is still voicing John in his last appearance

    The series has a second episode AND there is a new "first episode" substantially different from the pilot

    Megalovania plays

    Megalovania plays before Megalovania plays in Deltarune (Resolves NO if Megalovania never appears in HS, even if it never appears in Deltarune either)

    Vriska does something wrong (as judged by Robin)

    The show will generally cover most of the events of the first five acts

    The series has a second episode

    Eddie Morton recording of I'm a Member of the Midnight Crew is sampled or played

    The first time a troll contacts a kid, the troll can see the kid but the kid cannot see the troll

    The total runtime of the series is at least 413 minutes

    Dave's strifes with Bro are more intense or violent than John's strifes with Dad, as judged by @Robincvgr (N/A if either has no strifes depicted)

    Anyone says "Sweet Bro and Hella Jeff"

    "Betty Crocker" or the names of any General Mills products (e.g. Gushers) are directly spoken

    The phrase, "We're doing it, man. We're making this happen," or any misspelling or minor variant thereof, appears.

    @Robincvgr will think the series overall is good

    Any VA changes between the pilot releasing and the last episode releasing

    A substantial portion of any Michael Guy Bowman music appears

    Conditional on there being a second episode, Adam McArthur is voicing Dave Strider in the first new/changed episode

    Cascade is adapted

    Dante Basco voices Rufioh (N/A if Rufioh never appears)

    All alpha trolls appear

    The show will generally cover most of the events of the entire webcomic

    Any part of the plot from HS:BC is covered

    Anyone says "retard(ed)" in the pilot

    The beginning of the series does not take place on April 13, 2009 (and the date is specified)

    Oil-retcon–like oil appears in John's house in the pilot

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    86

    80

    63

    62

    59

    59

    56

    55

    55

    54

    52

    52

    52

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    31

    30

    28

    10

    0

    0

    0

    Juggling megamarket

    Jan 4, 12:48 AMJan 11, 9:59 PM
    42182

    OptionProbability

    Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025

    Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League

    Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)

    Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027

    Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025

    At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

    At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

    Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025

    The European Juggling Convention 2025 is cancelled

    100

    100

    43

    17

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2248

    445

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1042

    660

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    195

    191

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    120

    69

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    151

    66

    OptionProbability

    X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

    X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

    Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

    Cascading effects (y-risk)* that can threaten millions of lives but can be reeled in** due to dynamics/buffers preventing x-risk territory being viable?

    49

    29

    12

    9

    Will a Cascade volcano erupt in the next 10 years?

    Nov 12, 12:13 AMNov 12, 6:59 AM
    48.29%chance
    360

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    222

    196

    Exit valuation of Cascading AI (YC S23)?

    Sep 14, 6:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
    130

    OptionProbability

    Less than $10M or bankrupt

    $10M - $100M

    $100M - $1B

    $1B+

    59

    14

    14

    14

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    105

    95

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