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Prediction markets for Christians
Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Dec 30, 8:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
2%chance
192415600
OptionVotes
3170
972
Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?
Apr 25, 11:16 AMDec 31, 11:47 AM
23.89%chance
9613352
OptionVotes
10681
3374
OptionVotes
1752
939
OptionVotes
2303
434
Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?
Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM
19.29%chance
555029
OptionVotes
2015
243
OptionVotes
136
100
Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030
Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
14.48%chance
122330
OptionVotes
2430
411
Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?
Aug 14, 5:41 PMSep 12, 11:59 PM
86.47%chance
72186
OptionVotes
2528
396
Bart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Sep 30, 6:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
9.71%chance
32050
OptionVotes
3050
328
[Metaculus] Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negot... for Germany before 2030?
Mar 3, 3:42 AMJan 1, 11:00 PM
29.81%chance
161171
OptionVotes
276
237
Will there have been a new president who isn't a Protestant or non denominational Christian by Inauguration Day 2045?
Jul 23, 6:14 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
66%chance
11384
OptionVotes
147
140
Will "Christian homeschoolers in the year 3000" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 18, 5:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.5%chance
3256
OptionVotes
1214
969
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