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Top stories

Founders Fund Backs Hadrian With $260 Million Series C

Founders Fund Backs Hadrian With $260 Million Series C

Authors

10

12 days ago

Prediction markets for Christmas

Will @bananamelter and @jayluxeed still be dating by Christmas 2025?

Dec 27, 11:21 PMDec 26, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

179202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3353

485

What were the motives of the Magdeburg Christmas Market terror attacker? (Germany, 20 December 2024)

Dec 21, 12:54 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

224579

OptionProbability

Terrorism/Extremism - Far right

Political Statement

Mental Health Crisis

Terrorism/Extremism - Islamic

Personal Grievance

Religious Conflict

Other

82

8

6

1

1

1

1

Will war on the Christmas be won in 2025?

Feb 6, 3:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.04%chance

161672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

749

Catholic Church in Germany consecrates same-sex unions before Christmas 2027?

May 18, 7:19 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

13.69%chance

8411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

In what year will All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey lose the streak of reaching #1 song in December?

Mar 25, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9399

OptionProbability

Other

2031

2027

2030

2028

2026

2029

2025

29

15

13

10

9

9

9

8

Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?

May 18, 7:10 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

18.37%chance

4389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

47

Rank of Tumbles on the Melee ranked ladder this Christmas? 2025

Jul 24, 4:56 AMDec 25, 12:00 AM

1333

OptionProbability

(07) Gold 3

(08) Gold 2

(09) Gold 1

(06) Platinum 1

(10) Silver 3

Other

54

22

10

10

2

2

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2037?

Mar 25, 4:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.05%chance

5189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

87

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2029?

Mar 25, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.58%chance

6104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

189

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2033?

Mar 25, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

98

Will Tumbles reach Platinum in the Melee ranked ladder before Christmas? 2025

Mar 21, 6:25 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

41.84%chance

437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will the war on Christmas still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

Jul 3, 7:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

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