Claude AI News

Anthropic Settles Authors’ Suit Alleging Pirated Books Fueled Claude AI

3 months ago

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.09%chance

403219724

OptionVotes

YES

11166

1492

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Sep 8, 4:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10091239

OptionProbability

Anyone or anything strongly associated with AI (Sam Altman, ChatGPT, Claude, “AI”, “LLM”, “H100”, etc)

Prominent politician, judge or military leader of any country (former or current). Includes unrecognized territories such as Gaza or ISIS.

Prominent civil activist or religious leader (Snowden, Assange, Greta, Dalai-Lama, The Pope)

Other / anything or anyone not included in other answers (“Freedom Fighters”, “You”, “American Soldier”, etc)

Prominent businessman, VC, investor, CEO or chairman of a board

Prominent artist (actor, musician, writer), influencer (MrBeast, etc), journalist, athlete, chess or poker player

Prominent scientist, academic or inventor (not including AI researchers)

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3849969

OptionProbability

70 - 84%

85% - 95%

Above 95%

Below 70%

Top Multi-SWE-bench score in 2025?

May 15, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2133934

OptionProbability

20 - 39%

40 - 59%

60 - 79%

80 - 100%

0 - 19%

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

22319

3938

US Google Trends: Which of these keywords will surpass their 2024 peak in 2025?

Dec 4, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

258569

OptionProbability

ChatGPT

Nvidia

Elon Musk

Claude AI

Israel

Nuclear

Bird flu

Iran

Manifold Markets

Bitcoin

Neuralink

Pandemic

Trump

Effective Altruism

Syria

100

Best public AI model uses "We" in CoT by EOY 2025?

Jun 1, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.68%chance

277050

OptionVotes

YES

1047

955

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

3327

301

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

47.6%chance

635937

OptionVotes

YES

1234

542

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

20.43%chance

74874

OptionVotes

YES

9864

2540

Did the release of Claude 3 help reduce AI x-risk?

Mar 6, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.58%chance

9226

OptionVotes

YES

175

109

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

May 22, 10:18 PM

110

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Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
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Anthropic Settles Authors’ Suit Alleging Pirated Books Fueled Claude AI
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3 months ago

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Prediction markets for Claude AI

Prediction markets for Claude AI

Prediction markets for Claude AI

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Top Multi-SWE-bench score in 2025?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

US Google Trends: Which of these keywords will surpass their 2024 peak in 2025?

Best public AI model uses "We" in CoT by EOY 2025?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

Did the release of Claude 3 help reduce AI x-risk?

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram