Claude AI News

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.82%chance

394172143

OptionVotes

YES

5304

1680

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1937355

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

25533

3383

Top Multi-SWE-bench score in 2025?

May 15, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1929205

Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?

Apr 13, 1:30 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

3028933

OptionProbability

>=16 hours

4 to 6 hours

8 to 16 hours

6 to 8 hours

2 to 4 hours

<2 hours

GPT-5's 50% time horizon, per METR

Jul 29, 8:35 PMAug 29, 8:27 PM

6426977

OptionProbability

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

3h - 3.5h

1.5h - 2h

3.5h - 4h

<1.5h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

Will Claude Resolve this Market YES? (Hard Mode)

Aug 1, 1:45 PMAug 4, 1:38 PM

40%chance

7622071

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Sep 8, 4:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4413064

OptionProbability

Prominent civil activist or religious leader (Snowden, Assange, Greta, Dalai-Lama, The Pope)

Prominent politician, judge or military leader of any country (former or current). Includes unrecognized territories such as Gaza or ISIS.

Prominent businessman, VC, investor, CEO or chairman of a board

Anyone or anything strongly associated with AI (Sam Altman, ChatGPT, Claude, “AI”, “LLM”, “H100”, etc)

Other / anything or anyone not included in other answers (“Freedom Fighters”, “You”, “American Soldier”, etc)

Prominent artist (actor, musician, writer), influencer (MrBeast, etc), journalist, athlete, chess or poker player

Prominent scientist, academic or inventor (not including AI researchers)

US Google Trends: Which of these keywords will surpass their 2024 peak in 2025?

Dec 4, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

226987

OptionProbability

ChatGPT

Nvidia

Elon Musk

Claude AI

Bird flu

Iran

Israel

Nuclear

Neuralink

Bitcoin

Manifold Markets

Trump

Pandemic

Syria

Effective Altruism

100

Did the release of Claude 3 help reduce AI x-risk?

Mar 6, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.65%chance

8201

OptionVotes

YES

150

129

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

49.79%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

5014

4986

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

May 22, 10:18 PM

100

Claude AI News

Prediction markets for Claude AI

Prediction markets for Claude AI

Prediction markets for Claude AI

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Top Multi-SWE-bench score in 2025?

Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?

GPT-5's 50% time horizon, per METR

Will Claude Resolve this Market YES? (Hard Mode)

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

US Google Trends: Which of these keywords will surpass their 2024 peak in 2025?

Did the release of Claude 3 help reduce AI x-risk?

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

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