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Top stories

Anthropic Settles Authors’ Suit Alleging Pirated Books Fueled Claude AI

Anthropic Settles Authors’ Suit Alleging Pirated Books Fueled Claude AI

Authors

49

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Claude AI

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

8.51%chance

7431502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32786

3050

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will the first AGI be a large language model?

Apr 18, 4:09 PMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

45.33%chance

645998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

578

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Jan 1, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

151757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

625

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:27 AMJan 1, 4:24 AM

23.89%chance

8612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

740

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Did the release of Claude 3 help reduce AI x-risk?

Mar 6, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.58%chance

9226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

109

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

May 22, 10:18 PM

110

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Law
AI Modeling
Business
Anthropic Settles Authors’ Suit Alleging Pirated Books Fueled Claude AI
Authors
49
5 months ago

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