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Prediction markets for Claude AI
Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?
Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
76.06%chance
251152446
OptionVotes
1783
561
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.55%chance
8250361
OptionVotes
28550
2982
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.7%chance
3134762
OptionVotes
25099
3984
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?
Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
2333334
OptionProbability
65
56
39
15
5
0
Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM
24.05%chance
587915
OptionVotes
5483
2860
Will there be a massive internet outage before 2028?
Oct 21, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.53%chance
356596
OptionVotes
11161
8960
Who will Claude 7 name as having the most significant contribution to AI alignment?
Jul 3, 7:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11340
OptionProbability
49
15
10
9
8
8
OptionProbability
88
8
4
OptionVotes
175
109
Which AI coding agent repo gains the most GitHub stars by Nov 27, 2026: opencode, Claude Code, Codex or Gemini CLI?
Oct 27, 12:02 PMNov 27, 11:59 PM
361
OptionProbability
74
9
9
9
What will the top score on Epoch AI's Chess Puzzles benchmark be on November 30, 2026?
Nov 1, 4:26 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25
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