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Prediction markets for Claude AI
Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?
Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
77.45%chance
242150732
OptionVotes
1853
540
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.85%chance
8145087
OptionVotes
33264
2509
Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?
Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM
8.01%chance
7842197
OptionVotes
33880
2952
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?
Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
1712257
OptionProbability
64
56
44
30
9
5
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%chance
226982
OptionVotes
3477
288
OptionVotes
1479
344
Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?
Jan 1, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.88%chance
161881
OptionVotes
1496
668
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.82%chance
11970
OptionVotes
1368
731
Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?
Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM
39.02%chance
3250
OptionVotes
1250
800
OptionVotes
175
109
OptionProbability
70
20
10
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