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Prediction markets for Claude
Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?
Feb 25, 8:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
49.36%chance
10928884
OptionVotes
1013
987
OptionVotes
1375
727
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?
Oct 22, 9:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
3.41%chance
5016569
OptionVotes
5321
188
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM
5.17%chance
239890
OptionVotes
4394
449
OptionVotes
2568
389
Will Anthropic host a Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2026?
Feb 26, 12:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25%chance
151883
OptionVotes
1732
577
OptionVotes
1420
704
Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?
Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.67%chance
5765
OptionVotes
1747
572
Will "So how well is Claude playing Pokémon?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 22, 11:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.05%chance
2160
OptionVotes
1160
976
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.29%chance
215
OptionVotes
1003
979
Will Claude MCP have equivalent functionality to a Claude Computer Use module by EOY2025?
Dec 11, 3:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
56.94%chance
115
OptionVotes
115
87
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