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Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

6 months ago

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3573975

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

The multi-agent paradigm will win

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

YES

2867

552

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2210326

OptionProbability

2-2.5x

1-1.2x

1.2-1.4x

1.4-1.6x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

2.5-3x

≥3x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.3%chance

348451

OptionVotes

YES

14345

6971

By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?

Jan 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.62%chance

344443

OptionVotes

YES

1628

301

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

24.72%chance

321957

OptionVotes

YES

1802

300

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

1225

592

Will Anthropic release an orchestration layer for multiple Claude Code sessions/agents in 2026?

Jan 15, 9:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.39%chance

141044

OptionVotes

YES

1580

633

Will Visual Studio Code be the most popular IDE in every Stack Overflow Developer Survey until 2030?

Apr 10, 3:20 PMDec 31, 1:05 PM

42.53%chance

17776

OptionVotes

YES

1091

849

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before March?

Feb 4, 3:41 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

58.71%chance

8711

OptionVotes

YES

1192

839

Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?

Aug 28, 8:27 PMSep 5, 3:59 AM

31.16%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

1486

673

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.74%chance

18329

OptionVotes

YES

1081

960

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Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks
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AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Will Anthropic release an orchestration layer for multiple Claude Code sessions/agents in 2026?

Will Visual Studio Code be the most popular IDE in every Stack Overflow Developer Survey until 2030?

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before March?

Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Latest stories

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