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Prediction markets for Coding
AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026
Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM
4281215
OptionProbability
81
77
70
65
51
20
5
OptionProbability
23
14
13
12
12
11
8
5
2
1
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
90.97%chance
11626804
OptionVotes
2867
552
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.52%chance
4013689
OptionVotes
14097
7094
OptionVotes
4157
241
Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?
May 19, 1:01 AMJul 19, 1:00 AM
58.95%chance
496593
OptionVotes
1198
835
By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?
Jan 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.62%chance
344443
OptionVotes
1628
301
OptionVotes
1230
813
Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?
Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42%chance
253085
OptionVotes
1175
851
Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?
May 13, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.49%chance
242578
OptionVotes
1258
999
GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?
Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
53.66%chance
321555
OptionVotes
1225
592
Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?
Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM
74.74%chance
18329
OptionVotes
1081
960
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