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Prediction markets for Coding
OptionProbability
32
28
12
8
7
4
4
2
2
1
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.76%chance
4114764
OptionVotes
14172
7056
OptionVotes
4157
241
Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?
May 13, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.83%chance
315588
OptionVotes
3263
228
By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?
Jan 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.62%chance
344443
OptionVotes
1628
301
Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before 2027?
Jun 25, 4:00 PMJan 2, 12:59 AM
52.9%chance
193601
OptionVotes
1060
944
GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?
Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
53.66%chance
321555
OptionVotes
1225
592
OptionVotes
1243
922
Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?
Feb 24, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.78%chance
101233
OptionVotes
1112
655
Will Visual Studio Code be the most popular IDE in every Stack Overflow Developer Survey until 2030?
Apr 10, 3:20 PMDec 31, 1:05 PM
42.53%chance
17776
OptionVotes
1091
849
Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?
Aug 28, 8:27 PMSep 5, 3:59 AM
31.16%chance
2500
OptionVotes
1486
673
Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?
Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM
74.74%chance
18329
OptionVotes
1081
960
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