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Prediction markets for conflict
Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?
Mar 19, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15%chance
13056475
OptionVotes
1287
922
Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)
Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
65.58%chance
8942896
OptionVotes
1545
472
Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?
Nov 27, 5:20 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
30.06%chance
4634664
OptionVotes
2873
1463
[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.47%chance
5130898
OptionVotes
24768
1481
Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM
25.34%chance
5911690
OptionVotes
1489
764
Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028?
Jan 9, 3:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.36%chance
345239
OptionVotes
1797
533
US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029
Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM
12.52%chance
134737
OptionVotes
2644
378
Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?
Jan 28, 10:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
39.48%chance
412512
OptionVotes
1014
949
Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?
Apr 15, 4:32 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
36.84%chance
212398
OptionVotes
1039
907
Will Trump have a public conflict with FEMA during his 2nd term?
Nov 9, 10:18 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM
74.72%chance
102307
OptionVotes
1719
582
Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?
Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
60%chance
13389
OptionVotes
1044
907
Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?
Apr 9, 9:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
76.15%chance
12270
OptionVotes
1232
880
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