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Prediction markets for Connect
Did people connected with Trump campaign spend $10m+ to influence election markets? [based on reporting by end of 2025]
Oct 17, 10:56 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM
13.8%chance
4813215
OptionVotes
2499
400
Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2025?
Jun 12, 6:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3.35%chance
1710939
OptionVotes
5374
186
Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030
Aug 27, 5:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
22.16%chance
285057
OptionVotes
1302
858
Will I be the subject of a Craigslist Missed Connection in the Bay Area before the end of 2025?
Jun 13, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.23%chance
184643
OptionVotes
2560
391
Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2026?
Jun 12, 6:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
9.7%chance
222622
OptionVotes
3050
328
Will Sicily be connected with the mainland by a bridge before 2038?
Mar 18, 10:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
64.25%chance
191743
OptionVotes
1078
945
If AGI is achieved, will it be able to consistently and reliably connect printers within 6 months?
Feb 25, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.35%chance
37810
OptionVotes
1123
816
Will Apple announce an iPhone model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?
May 3, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24.53%chance
25682
OptionVotes
1022
974
Will any ex-Hololive member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Apr 17, 10:21 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
27.18%chance
5637
OptionVotes
1637
611
Will Google announce a Pixel model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?
May 3, 1:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22.77%chance
16331
OptionVotes
1013
974
Will any ex-Nijisanji member join Phase Connect before June 2027?
Apr 17, 10:23 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
43.06%chance
1150
OptionVotes
1150
870
Will "Connecting the Dots: LLMs can Infer & Verbali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 22, 3:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.46%chance
150
OptionVotes
1047
753
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