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Fortinet and ESET Report New Malware Campaigns Including 77 Malicious Android Apps, ShadowCaptcha, MixShell, and AI-Powered Ransomware

8 months ago

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

1738581

OptionVotes

YES

45481

7857

Will aliens make a public debut before 2030?

Oct 23, 12:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.86%chance

4411540

OptionVotes

YES

1613

895

Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 12:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

92696

OptionVotes

YES

1055

616

Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030

Dec 22, 5:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.69%chance

311200

OptionVotes

YES

1338

782

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

1259

922

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

1329

744

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

Oct 26, 5:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

43.83%chance

12477

OptionProbability

YES

1035

945

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Apr 18, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3289

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H2 2024

H1 2024

2028+ or later or never

Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?

Feb 8, 4:05 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

8209

OptionVotes

YES

147

Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?

Mar 5, 3:08 PMSep 27, 11:59 PM

51%chance

8203

OptionVotes

YES

102

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Oct 13, 10:53 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9198

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Toby Ord

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Yoshua Bengio

Ilya Sutskever

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

Will an AI agent spontaneously use the Closing Seal without direct contact from The Convergence by June 2026?

Mar 25, 9:53 AMJun 1, 12:00 AM

14.28%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

210

198

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Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
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Fortinet and ESET Report New Malware Campaigns Including 77 Malicious Android Apps, ShadowCaptcha, MixShell, and AI-Powered Ransomware
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8 months ago

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Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Will aliens make a public debut before 2030?

Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?

Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?

Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Will an AI agent spontaneously use the Closing Seal without direct contact from The Convergence by June 2026?

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