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Fortinet and ESET Report New Malware Campaigns Including 77 Malicious Android Apps, ShadowCaptcha, MixShell, and AI-Powered Ransomware

3 days ago

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.72%chance

1537079

OptionVotes

YES

44052

7896

Will aliens make a public debut before 2030?

Oct 23, 12:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.87%chance

419565

OptionVotes

YES

2223

857

Will my video game be released by the end of 2025?

Mar 6, 6:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.45%chance

301930

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030

Dec 22, 5:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.69%chance

311200

OptionVotes

YES

1338

782

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

1259

922

Will a member of US congress physically attack another member of congress before 2026?

Nov 29, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.99%chance

8560

OptionVotes

YES

569

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

1329

744

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

Oct 26, 5:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

43.83%chance

12477

OptionProbability

YES

1035

945

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11400

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Apr 18, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3289

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H2 2024

H1 2024

2028+ or later or never

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Oct 13, 10:53 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8154

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Nick Bostrom

Toby Ord

Ilya Sutskever

Dario Amodei

Yoshua Bengio

Geoffrey Hinton

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?

Aug 27, 3:25 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

32.61%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

144

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Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Infosec
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Tech
Fortinet and ESET Report New Malware Campaigns Including 77 Malicious Android Apps, ShadowCaptcha, MixShell, and AI-Powered Ransomware
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Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Will aliens make a public debut before 2030?

Will my video game be released by the end of 2025?

Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Will a member of US congress physically attack another member of congress before 2026?

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?

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