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Fortinet and ESET Report New Malware Campaigns Including 77 Malicious Android Apps, ShadowCaptcha, MixShell, and AI-Powered Ransomware

1 year ago

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.7%chance

1739662

OptionVotes

YES

44399

7886

Will aliens make a public debut before 2030?

Oct 23, 12:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.3%chance

4612175

OptionVotes

YES

1748

885

Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 12:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.77%chance

197853

OptionVotes

YES

1023

997

Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030

Dec 22, 5:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.69%chance

311200

OptionVotes

YES

1338

782

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.18%chance

19899

OptionVotes

YES

1264

921

Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?

Mar 5, 3:08 PMSep 27, 11:59 PM

39.82%chance

18674

OptionVotes

YES

123

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

1329

744

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

Oct 26, 5:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

43.83%chance

12477

OptionProbability

YES

1035

945

How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?

Jun 14, 1:18 AMJun 14, 5:59 AM

4294

OptionProbability

1 or more

2 or more

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Apr 18, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3289

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H2 2024

H1 2024

2028+ or later or never

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Oct 13, 10:53 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9198

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Toby Ord

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Yoshua Bengio

Ilya Sutskever

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

Will I get paid from a side gig as an independent contractor.

Sep 2, 2:44 AMJan 1, 3:30 AM

3150

OptionProbability

The Deal Succeeds & I Get Paid

The Deal Succeeds but I Am Not Paid

The Client Flees (Deal Fails)

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Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Infosec
AI Modeling
Tech
Fortinet and ESET Report New Malware Campaigns Including 77 Malicious Android Apps, ShadowCaptcha, MixShell, and AI-Powered Ransomware
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1 year ago

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Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Will aliens make a public debut before 2030?

Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?

Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Will Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Will I get paid from a side gig as an independent contractor.

Latest stories

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