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Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?
Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
2.7%chance
1739662
OptionVotes
44399
7886
OptionVotes
1748
885
Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?
Jan 1, 12:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.55%chance
218603
OptionVotes
1773
938
Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030
Dec 22, 5:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.69%chance
311200
OptionVotes
1338
782
[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?
Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
18.18%chance
19899
OptionVotes
1264
921
Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?
Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
19.93%chance
14535
OptionVotes
1329
744
Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?
Oct 26, 5:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM
43.83%chance
12477
OptionProbability
1035
945
When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?
Apr 18, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
4304
OptionProbability
24
22
10
10
10
10
8
5
3
OptionProbability
52
50
35
25
16
9
Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?
Feb 8, 4:05 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM
31.64%chance
8209
OptionVotes
147
68
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?
Oct 13, 10:53 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
9198
OptionProbability
95
63
55
50
44
41
35
32
15
10
OptionProbability
37
34
29
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