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Top stories

Google Adds URL Context to Gemini API as Anthropic Unveils Cost Tracker

Google Adds URL Context to Gemini API as Anthropic Unveils Cost Tracker

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Context

When will mind-reading become reliable in an adversarial context?

Jan 15, 6:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

212682

OptionProbability

Other

2042

2043

2044

2045

2041

2040

2027

2039

2037

2034

2035

2036

2038

2024

2025

2026

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

30

7

7

7

7

6

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

When will the first AI Mind Reading technology be used in a legal or policing context?

Dec 1, 9:11 PMDec 12, 9:10 PM

40%chance

111324

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1035

789

OpenAI releases model with 5M+ context by end of March 2026?

Aug 15, 8:17 AMApr 1, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

5643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2042

1943

Will it be possible to post to manifold via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2025?

Dec 11, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90.87%chance

3385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

315

32

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Will I think temporolocal peak bizarro occurred between 24' Dec 1. and 25' May 1. in context of middle 2020's?

Jan 9, 7:01 AMAug 14, 8:59 PM

27.54%chance

7119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

194

Within 4 years, finetuning will become increasingly less relevant in favor of in context learning

Apr 3, 10:06 PMApr 4, 4:59 AM

73.2%chance

7101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

318

166

Will "Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Sch..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 6, 4:13 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?

Dec 11, 3:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.01%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will Claude and other base models support the Model Context Protocol (MCP) natively by 2026?

Apr 1, 5:41 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

86.47%chance

22

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3

0

Will an integration for guesstimate/squigglehub to Anthropic Claude's Model Context Protocol (MCP) exist by EOY2025

Dec 14, 9:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

In the context of financial world, is “pundit” a term of

Jun 13, 8:00 AM

50

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
AI Products
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Google Adds URL Context to Gemini API as Anthropic Unveils Cost Tracker
Authors
5
4 months ago

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