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Prediction markets for Context
When will mind-reading become reliable in an adversarial context?
Jan 15, 6:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
212682
OptionProbability
30
7
7
7
7
6
5
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
When will the first AI Mind Reading technology be used in a legal or policing context?
Dec 1, 9:11 PMDec 12, 9:10 PM
40%chance
111324
OptionProbability
1035
789
The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026
Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM
81.04%chance
51125
OptionVotes
2067
484
Will it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?
Dec 11, 3:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
85.03%chance
4568
OptionVotes
238
42
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Mar 29, 2:55 PMJan 15, 12:00 AM
25.95%chance
14430
OptionVotes
105
84
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6210
OptionProbability
61
51
30
24
22
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.92%chance
4194
OptionVotes
1022
979
Prompt caching is seen as the wrong path for context management, in December 2026? [0.005 Seconds prediction]
Apr 10, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.48%chance
4153
OptionVotes
1142
967
Within 4 years, finetuning will become increasingly less relevant in favor of in context learning
Apr 3, 10:06 PMApr 4, 4:59 AM
73.2%chance
7101
OptionVotes
318
166
Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?
May 25, 5:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
39.13%chance
784
OptionVotes
125
80
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