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Prediction markets for Creator
Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?
Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM
67.06%chance
177310
OptionVotes
1427
701
OptionVotes
5303
189
Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?
Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
5.49%chance
213037
OptionVotes
2050
707
Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?
Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.52%chance
132287
OptionVotes
2226
883
Will Alexandra Elbakyan (creator of Sci-Hub) ever receive a Nobel Prize?
Dec 11, 12:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
8.89%chance
271091
OptionVotes
1057
970
Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?
Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM
25.25%chance
15869
OptionVotes
1107
931
Will Eugen Rochko (creator of Mastodon) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Dec 21, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.71%chance
10419
OptionVotes
1191
957
Will Manifold market creators go on strike at any point before 2028?
May 12, 9:43 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
17.23%chance
19411
OptionVotes
127
101
OptionVotes
172
58
If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?
Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
31.49%chance
12146
OptionVotes
1054
966
Should market creators on manifold avoid ever betting on their own markets?
Jul 10, 6:53 PMJan 1, 8:01 AM
39.42%chance
435
OptionVotes
155
110
Will MP (the original creator) consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?
Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
62.15%chance
13
OptionVotes
103
98
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