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Prediction markets for Creator
Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?
Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM
68.56%chance
187360
OptionVotes
1477
677
OptionVotes
6803
147
Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?
Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
5.49%chance
213037
OptionVotes
2050
707
Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?
Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.52%chance
132287
OptionVotes
2226
883
Will Alexandra Elbakyan (creator of Sci-Hub) ever receive a Nobel Prize?
Dec 11, 12:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
8.49%chance
271141
OptionVotes
1107
965
Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?
Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM
25.25%chance
15869
OptionVotes
1107
931
Will Eugen Rochko (creator of Mastodon) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Dec 21, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.71%chance
10419
OptionVotes
1191
957
Will Manifold market creators go on strike at any point before 2028?
May 12, 9:43 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
17.23%chance
19411
OptionVotes
127
101
OptionProbability
27
12
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
4
4
4
Will Aella (the original creator) have a baby by the end of 2027?
Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
5168
OptionVotes
120
90
If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?
Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
31.49%chance
12146
OptionVotes
1054
966
Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?
Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
35.67%chance
467
OptionVotes
134
74
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