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Prediction markets for Crimea invasion
By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
Sep 13, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.21%chance
306217
OptionVotes
3196
638
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?
Nov 16, 5:04 PMFeb 25, 3:00 PM
95.53%chance
204375
OptionVotes
2059
892
Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
Nov 8, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3.58%chance
101189
OptionVotes
519
19
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
21005
OptionProbability
26
23
16
12
10
6
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
72
58
0
0
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
236
OptionProbability
22
18
15
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
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