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Prediction markets for Crimea invasion
By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
Sep 13, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.14%chance
276183
OptionVotes
4100
604
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?
Nov 16, 5:04 PMFeb 25, 3:00 PM
95.53%chance
204375
OptionVotes
2059
892
Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
Nov 8, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
5%chance
101137
OptionVotes
436
23
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
21005
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
2958
OptionProbability
72
58
47
0
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
Mar 1, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
239
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
236
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