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Prediction markets for Data Streams
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.67%chance
8149972
OptionVotes
28379
3002
Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 500 tpa on December 31, 2026?
Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM
79.28%chance
21760
OptionVotes
160
78
Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 1000 tpa on December 31, 2026?
Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM
79.04%chance
21100
OptionVotes
200
35
Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?
Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
35.54%chance
17971
OptionVotes
1118
699
In two years time AI pornography will generate twice as much money as regular pornography.
Mar 13, 4:09 AMMar 13, 4:08 AM
4.71%chance
22715
OptionVotes
450
22
Will Kendrick Lamar have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026?
Jan 5, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.24%chance
5264
OptionVotes
418
101
OptionProbability
41
40
10
9
OptionProbability
70
20
10
Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 10000 tpa on December 31, 2026?
Mar 30, 9:47 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM
97.25%chance
6100
OptionVotes
116
0
OptionProbability
60
23
17
OptionVotes
172
100
Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 5000 tpa on December 31, 2026?
Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM
61.22%chance
319
OptionVotes
119
4
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