Dead To Rights News

Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film

9 months ago

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.32%chance

625672861

OptionVotes

YES

9302

597

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM

23%chance

19825357

OptionVotes

YES

2080

2056

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

234680

OptionVotes

YES

1349

741

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Mar 2, 10:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

3.58%chance

361896

OptionVotes

YES

519

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.84%chance

121515

OptionVotes

YES

1309

764

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

Jul 22, 6:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.3%chance

18820

OptionVotes

YES

1455

943

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

1123

765

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11400

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

4172

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

47.56%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
China
Japan
Movies
Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film
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9 months ago

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Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Latest stories

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