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Prediction markets for Dead To Rights

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.89%chance

567586950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12934

547

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM

22.7%chance

19424328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2107

2048

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.38%chance

234627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

773

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.23%chance

252768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2511

613

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

Jul 22, 6:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.62%chance

16720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

948

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11400

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

89

55

41

36

35

34

30

24

12

12

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

What is the optimal set of three wishes from a genie?

Jan 10, 4:46 PM

00

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