Dead To Rights News

Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film

10 months ago

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM

23%chance

19825357

OptionVotes

YES

2080

2056

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

234680

OptionVotes

YES

1349

741

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

10%chance

292375

OptionVotes

YES

300

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.11%chance

131565

OptionVotes

YES

1359

736

When will the Iranian protests end?

Jan 15, 9:56 PMFeb 17, 2:59 AM

10881

OptionProbability

Before July 1, 2026

Before January 1, 2027

Before April 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

Before February 15, 2026

Before February 1, 2026

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

Jul 22, 6:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.3%chance

18820

OptionVotes

YES

1455

943

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

1123

765

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11410

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Nick Bostrom

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

37.17%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

1300

769

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.87%chance

4175

OptionVotes

YES

1125

889

More valuable company in 2040?

Dec 22, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

Safe Super Intelligence

Thinking Machines

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
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Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film
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10 months ago

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Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

will trump be assasinated in US?

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

When will the Iranian protests end?

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

More valuable company in 2040?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram