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Top stories

Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film

Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Dead To Rights

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM

14.09%chance

20328862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3296

1789

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

234680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.11%chance

131565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

736

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

Jul 22, 6:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

7.78%chance

261513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

806

When will the Iranian protests end?

Jan 15, 9:56 PMFeb 17, 2:59 AM

10906

OptionProbability

Before January 1, 2027

Before July 1, 2026

Before April 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

Before February 15, 2026

Before February 1, 2026

82

77

40

3

2

1

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11410

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Nick Bostrom

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

89

55

36

35

34

30

28

24

12

12

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

76.29%chance

10325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

83

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

37.78%chance

3310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.87%chance

4175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

More valuable company in 2040?

Dec 22, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

Safe Super Intelligence

Thinking Machines

53

47

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
China
Japan
Movies
Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film
Authors
11
1 year ago

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