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Prediction markets for Death to America
Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.26%chance
224741
OptionVotes
5159
2655
Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM
50.96%chance
81041
OptionVotes
1019
981
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
35.26%chance
191028
OptionVotes
1071
830
Will Iranian government action cause the deaths of at least 10 Americans within the borders of the US in 2025?
Jun 22, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16%chance
24825
OptionVotes
229
44
Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2025?
Nov 30, 2:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
11.26%chance
17549
OptionVotes
1316
931
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
25.08%chance
7199
OptionVotes
166
106
Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
Nov 30, 2:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29%chance
7126
OptionVotes
117
72
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