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Prediction markets for Death to America
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8516507
OptionProbability
17
16
15
13
11
10
7
6
5
1
1
Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.26%chance
224741
OptionVotes
5159
2655
If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)
Jan 21, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
131493
OptionProbability
90
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM
59.79%chance
91241
OptionVotes
1219
820
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
35.26%chance
201078
OptionVotes
1139
883
If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM
80.5%chance
10228
OptionVotes
203
49
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
22.38%chance
9226
OptionVotes
191
105
OptionVotes
136
73
Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
Nov 30, 2:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29%chance
7126
OptionVotes
117
72
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