DeepSeek News

Tesla Adds DeepSeek and ByteDance’s Doubao Voice AIs to China Cars

10 months ago

DeepSeek Launches 685B-Parameter Hybrid V3.1 AI Model With 128K Token Context and Boosts Cambricon Stock

China

Stocks

AI Modeling

DeepSeek Launches 685B-Parameter Hybrid V3.1 AI Model With 128K Token Context and Boosts Cambricon Stock

10 months ago

China

Automobile

AI Products

Tesla Integrates DeepSeek and ByteDance’s Doubao AI Voice Assistants in China’s Model Y L With Navigation and Entertainment Controls

10 months ago

China

US Foreign Policy

Politics

OpenAI’s Altman Says U.S. Underrates China as Chip Curbs Fall Short

10 months ago

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Feb 18, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

1616941

OptionVotes

YES

9940

101

DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:09 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

3113888

OptionProbability

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

7h - 8h

3.5h - 4h

3h - 3.5h

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

10h - 11h

<1.5h

1.5h - 2h

11h - 12h

>=12h

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

Feb 10, 8:33 AMSep 30, 11:59 AM

1.01%chance

3613222

OptionVotes

YES

9902

101

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

7.49%chance

517972

OptionVotes

YES

5305

495

Will Deepseek V4 outperform OpenAI and Anthropic models at coding?

Jan 9, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.6%chance

251711

OptionVotes

YES

785

Will the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?

Jan 10, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.76%chance

91651

OptionVotes

YES

2646

592

Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?

Aug 22, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.44%chance

81135

OptionVotes

YES

1668

599

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.01%chance

10577

OptionVotes

YES

906

247

Did DeepSeek use a cluster of more than 5,000 H100s in 2024?

Jan 25, 9:02 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29.79%chance

11279

OptionVotes

YES

154

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

175

Will "DeepSeek" surpass "ChatGPT" in Google Trends worldwide search interest for 7 consecutive days before June 30, 2026

Feb 26, 8:06 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.09%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

381

OptionVotes

YES

122

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If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Will Deepseek V4 outperform OpenAI and Anthropic models at coding?

Will the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?

Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Did DeepSeek use a cluster of more than 5,000 H100s in 2024?

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Will "DeepSeek" surpass "ChatGPT" in Google Trends worldwide search interest for 7 consecutive days before June 30, 2026

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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