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Prediction markets for DeepSeek
OptionVotes
9950
101
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
3.01%chance
5512423
OptionVotes
8856
317
OptionProbability
93
65
31
12
OptionVotes
1411
709
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
Aug 22, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.89%chance
123110
OptionVotes
2391
418
OptionVotes
1136
993
Will the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?
Jan 10, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.66%chance
92304
OptionVotes
3093
545
OptionProbability
76
53
52
37
16
Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?
Jan 6, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
38.71%chance
11597
OptionVotes
872
267
Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?
Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.54%chance
10274
OptionVotes
175
57
Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.2%chance
6134
OptionVotes
111
90
Will Kimi or DeepSeek have the stronger model by the end of 2026?
Aug 2, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.71%chance
483
OptionVotes
101
99
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