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Prediction markets for DeepSeek
Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?
Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
12.58%chance
7132050
OptionVotes
25925
4669
OptionVotes
25942
6512
Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model?
Jan 22, 1:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
7.51%chance
268890
OptionVotes
3509
285
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
7.29%chance
507901
OptionVotes
5386
489
OptionVotes
1737
576
Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?
Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.84%chance
223112
OptionVotes
1309
764
OptionVotes
2244
446
OptionVotes
1035
966
OptionVotes
1077
928
Did DeepSeek violate OpenAI's terms of service by using OpenAI model outputs for distillation in 2024 or January 2025?
Jan 30, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22.35%chance
81080
OptionVotes
1864
536
"Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months?
Jun 28, 4:09 AMNov 28, 4:08 AM
53.7%chance
17762
OptionVotes
1077
929
Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)
Jan 27, 2:10 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
79.91%chance
33738
OptionVotes
199
50
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