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Top stories

Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks

Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks

Authors

12

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Default

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

Apr 7, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.27%chance

5986466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47365

2111

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

May 30, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1618102

OptionProbability

Cursor (custom model)

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

74

9

8

3

3

1

1

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1017501

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

26

13

5

5

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.7%chance

429653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11488

8479

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.84%chance

274602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1949

513

Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?

Apr 22, 8:31 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

49%chance

123516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

43.1%chance

322836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

736

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

281644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

928

Will Coinbase default on its debt?

Nov 17, 1:52 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

14.63%chance

131415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

945

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

952

Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?

Mar 13, 10:38 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

25.96%chance

13145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

972

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Tariffs
Economics
Politics
Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks
Authors
12
4 months ago

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