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Top stories

Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks

Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Default

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

Apr 7, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.47%chance

66107676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

62796

1592

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1620561

OptionProbability

Frontier

No default amongst those listed before 2030

JetBlue

Bermudair

Avelo

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Allegiant Air

Breeze

Sun Country

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

Air New Zealand

25

16

14

5

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

15.96%chance

275012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2295

436

Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?

Apr 22, 8:31 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

164063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

31.58%chance

353262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1552

557

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.52%chance

292144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1828

872

Will Coinbase default on its debt?

Nov 17, 1:52 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

14.63%chance

131415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

945

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

Will "Alignment will happen by default. What’s next?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 28, 4:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.46%chance

3857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1830

906

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.44%chance

7505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

878

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

952

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Tariffs
Economics
Politics
Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks
Authors
12
1 year ago

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