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Top stories

Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks

Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks

Authors

12

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Default

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

Apr 7, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.15%chance

5776632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39050

2561

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

May 30, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1410125

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Cursor (custom model)

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

55

21

7

7

4

3

3

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.76%chance

419642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11501

8468

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

264536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

539

Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?

Apr 22, 8:31 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

49%chance

123516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

43.1%chance

322836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

736

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

281644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

928

Will Coinbase default on its debt?

Nov 17, 1:52 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

14.63%chance

131415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

945

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

Will Ukraine default on any of it's national government debt in 2025?

Mar 2, 6:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

16.43%chance

71255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2255

443

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

68.6%chance

13280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

952

Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?

Mar 13, 10:38 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

25.96%chance

13145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

972

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Tariffs
Economics
Politics
Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks
Authors
12
3 days ago

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