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Prediction markets for Default
OptionVotes
61878
1616
OptionProbability
26
13
5
5
3
3
2
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Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
51.05%chance
4310153
OptionVotes
10938
8979
OptionVotes
1949
513
Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?
Apr 22, 8:31 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM
49%chance
123516
OptionVotes
1020
980
Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM
43%chance
342962
OptionVotes
1252
734
Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?
Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
12%chance
281644
OptionVotes
1328
928
OptionVotes
1205
945
Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?
May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.79%chance
161362
OptionVotes
1696
589
NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"
Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM
68.6%chance
13280
OptionVotes
1079
952
OptionVotes
1048
954
OptionVotes
1052
972