Digital Markets Act News

YES

There is a new Prime Minister of the UK

Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Democratic Party has a < 80% chance of winning the House in the midterms

Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Manifold shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

The Kalshi "American Power Index" favors Democrats

Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Kalshi shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Israel has a new Prime Minister

An NFL game ends in a tie

Polymarket shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

The first serious candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election enters the race

Elizabeth MacDonough is no longer Senate Parliamentarian

A Supreme Court Justice announces their retirement

A jury returns a verdict of guilty with respect to at least one crime charged against Luigi Mangione

A snap election is called in the UK

Mike Johnson is out as Speaker of the House

A federal government shutdown occurs

The provisions of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is passed into law

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor is removed from the line of succession to the British Throne

The provisions of the SAVE Act are passed into law

Pope Leo XIV is no longer pope

The DC Home Rule Act is repealed

A one point safety happens in the NFL

Legislative filibuster is abolished

The United States is in charge of at least part of Greenland

Any section of the 25th Amendment is invoked

Republicans lose a majority in the House of Representatives

Charles III is no longer king

YES

NO

NO

YES

NO

NO

YES

2045

2040

2035

Later/never

YES

YES