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Prediction markets for Direct

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

459334431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2661

2602

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.07%chance

150128231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18325

7936

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Jan 22, 4:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.06%chance

4021798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10078

8951

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.82%chance

12711951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2041

1476

Will WW3 directly cause over 1B civilian casualties?

Jan 3, 8:44 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

26.01%chance

86380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9588

101

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

48.33%chance

926251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2800

1132

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

22.43%chance

193648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

1093

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.36%chance

22432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10483

9539

In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?

Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.14%chance

381771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1344

716

Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?

Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.85%chance

18992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

634

Can anti-cavity oral probiotics spread directly between people via mouth-to-mouth contact?

Nov 20, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.85%chance

24684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1981

1970

Will there be a third Nintendo Direct in August?

Aug 19, 12:05 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

7.05%chance

6263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

28

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