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Prediction markets for Direct
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.87%chance
555495774
OptionVotes
3519
1108
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33%chance
12913375
OptionVotes
2684
1043
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
40.23%chance
926495
OptionVotes
3092
899
OptionVotes
9588
101
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
40.83%chance
34932
OptionVotes
12039
8306
Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM
22.43%chance
193648
OptionVotes
2117
1093
In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?
Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
62.95%chance
391876
OptionVotes
1339
719
Will there be mass layoffs of knowledge workers as a direct result of AI by 2030?
Oct 10, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
69.72%chance
221532
OptionVotes
1104
940
Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?
Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
75.89%chance
191017
OptionVotes
1043
548
Will U.S. 401(k) plans widely allow direct investment in cryptocurrencies by 2030?
May 27, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.98%chance
5933
OptionVotes
1831
546
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
57.1%chance
8909
OptionVotes
1154
867
Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?
Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM
35.58%chance
5475
OptionVotes
1345
743
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