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Prediction markets for Direct
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
27.86%chance
653719860
OptionVotes
5791
4783
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
45.92%chance
13514996
OptionVotes
2111
1414
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
22.99%chance
511228
OptionVotes
18303
5464
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
44.69%chance
976705
OptionVotes
2926
1021
OptionVotes
9618
91
Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?
Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM
42.64%chance
233700
OptionVotes
4493
3587
Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM
22.43%chance
193648
OptionVotes
2117
1093
Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?
Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
61.83%chance
112048
OptionVotes
1138
717
In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?
Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60.44%chance
401975
OptionVotes
1273
760
Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?
Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
75.49%chance
191027
OptionVotes
1047
538
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
59.17%chance
9959
OptionVotes
1204
831
Will U.S. 401(k) plans widely allow direct investment in cryptocurrencies by 2030?
May 27, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.98%chance
5933
OptionVotes
1831
546
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