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Prediction markets for Direct
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25%chance
459335172
OptionVotes
2661
2602
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
18.62%chance
151128693
OptionVotes
20157
7484
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
Jan 22, 4:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
8.61%chance
4125255
OptionVotes
11494
9803
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
47.82%chance
12711951
OptionVotes
2041
1476
OptionVotes
9588
101
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
48.33%chance
926251
OptionVotes
2800
1132
Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM
22.43%chance
193648
OptionVotes
2117
1093
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
52.36%chance
22432
OptionVotes
10483
9539
In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?
Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63.14%chance
381771
OptionVotes
1344
716
Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?
Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
78.85%chance
18992
OptionVotes
1018
634
Will U.S. 401(k) plans widely allow direct investment in cryptocurrencies by 2030?
May 27, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.02%chance
5882
OptionVotes
1882
531
Can anti-cavity oral probiotics spread directly between people via mouth-to-mouth contact?
Nov 20, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
28.85%chance
24684
OptionVotes
1981
1970
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