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Prediction markets for Direct
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.32%chance
480364022
OptionVotes
2874
2054
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
5.14%chance
154150007
OptionVotes
49118
4323
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
Jan 22, 4:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5.79%chance
5056932
OptionVotes
16883
9396
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
38.11%chance
12913086
OptionVotes
2432
1182
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
40.23%chance
926495
OptionVotes
3092
899
OptionVotes
9588
101
Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM
22.43%chance
193648
OptionVotes
2117
1093
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
52.36%chance
22432
OptionVotes
10483
9539
Can anti-cavity oral probiotics spread directly between people via mouth-to-mouth contact?
Nov 20, 2:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.75%chance
262159
OptionVotes
3245
1620
In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?
Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
62.95%chance
391876
OptionVotes
1339
719
Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?
Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
75.89%chance
191017
OptionVotes
1043
548
Will U.S. 401(k) plans widely allow direct investment in cryptocurrencies by 2030?
May 27, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.98%chance
5933
OptionVotes
1831
546
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