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Prediction markets for Drift
OptionProbability
80
12
7
2
OptionProbability
49
30
10
6
3
1
OptionVotes
1215
880
Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?
Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
29.5%chance
15628
OptionVotes
1177
900
OptionProbability
42
21
8
7
7
7
7
3
OptionVotes
136
74
By what date will encoded reasoning via linguistic drift be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?
Oct 10, 11:10 AMJan 1, 12:04 PM
2135
OptionProbability
79
76
73
63
58
53
48
43
24
OptionVotes
110
91
OptionVotes
160
62
OptionVotes
119
84
OptionProbability
36
12
9
9
9
9
9
9
OptionVotes
107
93
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