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Prediction markets for Drive
Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?
Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM
7757100
OptionProbability
80
15
5
0
0
0
0
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
78.88%chance
12723740
OptionVotes
3769
1429
OptionVotes
1462
798
Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
Nov 2, 10:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
87.18%chance
536555
OptionVotes
2283
153
Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?
Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
52%chance
475654
OptionVotes
2864
1090
Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?
Jun 2, 12:42 PMJun 2, 9:59 PM
9.69%chance
363661
OptionVotes
3053
328
Drunk driving is legal again for self-driving car drivers in at least one US state before 2033
Jun 26, 7:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
17.41%chance
693556
OptionVotes
2046
818
OptionVotes
1794
557
Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?
Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM
72.59%chance
181548
OptionVotes
1736
350
OptionVotes
1005
971
Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?
Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51%chance
181206
OptionVotes
1021
981
Will the Swedish Transport Workers' Union (Transportarbetareförbundet) officially oppose self driving vehicles?
Apr 18, 1:53 PMJan 1, 2:47 PM
42.2%chance
3307
OptionVotes
1270
954
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