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5

6 months ago

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756998

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

81

15

4

0

0

0

0

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.6%chance

11822685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4012

1368

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.51%chance

828854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

803

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Nov 2, 10:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.73%chance

536419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2196

166

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.8%chance

465390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

1338

Will a reactionless drive be conclusively demonstrated operational in space before 2100?

Sep 9, 7:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31%chance

225269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

588

Cybertruck drives on moon or other solar planetary body

Mar 28, 3:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.09%chance

375095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

919

Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?

Jun 2, 12:42 PMJun 2, 9:59 PM

11.81%chance

363341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2733

366

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?

Jun 2, 5:19 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

23.7%chance

152898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1794

557

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

350

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

261330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

971

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

977

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