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Will the ARC Prize Foundation succeed at making a new benchmark that is easy for humans but still hard for the best AIs?
Jan 9, 5:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
87.77%chance
298987
OptionVotes
2679
373
Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?
Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
40%chance
827039
OptionVotes
1048
902
H5N1 virus acquires human-to-human easy transmission capability by June 1st, 2027
May 23, 10:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM
25.89%chance
93348
OptionVotes
1692
591
Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?
Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
35%chance
351217
OptionVotes
1111
913
are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express
Aug 29, 2:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
28.89%chance
14759
OptionVotes
1217
858
Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?
Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM
74.79%chance
26735
OptionVotes
998
935
Will it be cheap and easy and permanently remove hair by the beginning of 2028?
Nov 27, 7:03 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
20.74%chance
13379
OptionVotes
1127
948
Will "Two easy things that maybe Just Work to impro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 9, 2:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.59%chance
253
OptionVotes
1030
995
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