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FBI Raids Bolton Home; Former Adviser Blasts Trump’s Ukraine Policy

US Foreign Policy

FBI Raids Bolton Home; Former Adviser Blasts Trump’s Ukraine Policy

15

1 day ago

Will an op-ed “translated from” an animal (e.g. a Whale) be published in any major American newspaper by 2026?

Oct 31, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.99%chance

202235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2533

873

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.76%chance

6433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

804

In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?

Mar 30, 2:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9285

OptionProbability

Helped with >80% confidence

Helped with >60% confidence

Uncertain

Harmed with >60% confidence

Harmed with >80% confidence

66

22

7

5

1

By which date will Ed Sheeran's new album have come out?

Nov 9, 3:32 PMDec 4, 5:59 AM

3178

OptionProbability

March 2025

June 2025

September 2025

January 2026 D:

Other

January 2025!

26

23

21

19

9

1

Will ed boyden prefrontal cortex turn into more than 1 percent microplastics by weight by 2030?

Aug 22, 3:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.59%chance

1173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

Will the US ban businesses/merchants from receiving large crypto transfers from non-'KYC'ed self-hosted wallets?

Mar 24, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.56%chance

14166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

996

Will Ed Boyden win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?

Jan 10, 7:05 AMJan 28, 4:59 AM

16.59%chance

4100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

70

Will Ed Balls stand for election as an MP before 2030?

Jul 3, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.25%chance

359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will ANYONE from the Ed boyden lab win nobel prize by EOY 2033

Jan 22, 11:44 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

36.98%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

85

58

Will Jose Ricon OR Adam Marblestone OR Ed Boyden OR Steve Horvath OR Jeremy nixon get a pet axolotl by 2032?

Sep 16, 7:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Ed Boyden or Adam Marblestone be coauthor on a paper mentioning microplastics by EOY2031?

Sep 14, 7:20 PMSep 22, 3:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Is Ed Boyden funny?

Aug 11, 6:53 PM

00

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Aug 26, 2025
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US Judiciary
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FBI Raids Bolton Home; Former Adviser Blasts Trump’s Ukraine Policy
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1 day ago

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