Emergency Use Authorizations News

U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory

7 months ago

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543677

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

486946

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.41%chance

212670

OptionVotes

YES

1316

365

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.98%chance

11710

OptionVotes

YES

1332

836

Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050?

Jan 4, 12:32 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

89.94%chance

8542

OptionVotes

YES

657

333

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against glioblastoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.85%chance

6331

OptionVotes

YES

614

236

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.11%chance

11240

OptionVotes

YES

532

479

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against non-small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.64%chance

9196

OptionVotes

YES

377

309

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against myeloid leukemia before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.98%chance

5155

OptionVotes

YES

373

300

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against esophageal adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.51%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

370

305

HIV Vaccine fully approved by FDA and commercially available before 2035?

Jun 11, 7:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

129

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against prostate adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.2%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

299

283

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Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
US Domestic Policy
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U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory
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7 months ago

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Emergency Use Authorizations News

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against glioblastoma before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against non-small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against myeloid leukemia before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against esophageal adenocarcinoma before 2028?

HIV Vaccine fully approved by FDA and commercially available before 2035?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against prostate adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram