Emergency Use Authorizations News

U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory

1 year ago

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947448

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.41%chance

212670

OptionVotes

YES

1316

365

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.19%chance

131518

OptionVotes

YES

1343

833

Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050?

Jan 4, 12:32 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

89.94%chance

8542

OptionVotes

YES

657

333

Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?

Jun 13, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.47%chance

8318

OptionVotes

YES

352

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.19%chance

12258

OptionVotes

YES

550

473

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.43%chance

4205

OptionVotes

YES

357

286

Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2028?

Apr 20, 9:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27%chance

12159

OptionVotes

YES

118

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Jan 20, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.84%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

240

Will anyone sucessfully redteam creation of smallpox before 2028?

Nov 30, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.18%chance

6135

OptionVotes

YES

212

Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030?

Apr 20, 9:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

679

OptionVotes

YES

Epstein-Barr virus vaccine by 2032?

Oct 26, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.12%chance

376

OptionVotes

YES

104

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Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Bio
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U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory
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1 year ago

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Emergency Use Authorizations News

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050?

Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?

Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2028?

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Will anyone sucessfully redteam creation of smallpox before 2028?

Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030?

Epstein-Barr virus vaccine by 2032?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram