Emergency Use Authorizations News
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Prediction markets for Emergency Use Authorizations
Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?
Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM
20049319
OptionProbability
79
12
6
3
How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?
Jun 18, 2:24 PMDec 31, 2:03 PM
148605
OptionProbability
100
100
100
86
80
77
75
73
69
67
64
64
58
57
57
56
54
54
52
50
50
48
44
0
OptionProbability
62
32
31
14
12
10
8
Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
53%chance
263066
OptionVotes
1171
497
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against malaria before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
9.22%chance
161292
OptionVotes
1201
182
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against pancreatic adenocarcinoma before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19%chance
7784
OptionVotes
424
341
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against glioblastoma before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.85%chance
6331
OptionVotes
614
236
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
26.19%chance
12258
OptionVotes
550
473
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
18.61%chance
5255
OptionVotes
407
273
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against myeloid leukemia before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33.98%chance
5155
OptionVotes
373
300
Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?
Oct 30, 12:01 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM
71.56%chance
5152
OptionVotes
105
98
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of breast cancer before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30.65%chance
891
OptionVotes
417
372
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