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Prediction markets for Emergency Use Authorizations
Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025
Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
16254471
OptionVotes
1206
894
Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
56.72%chance
182142
OptionVotes
1124
554
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
75.98%chance
10610
OptionVotes
1232
866
OptionVotes
657
333
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of herpes simplex infection before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
42.29%chance
9506
OptionVotes
373
360
Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?
Jun 13, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
7.92%chance
8307
OptionVotes
341
29
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
27.11%chance
11240
OptionVotes
532
479
OptionVotes
162
62
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
47.67%chance
8216
OptionVotes
515
302
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against myeloid leukemia before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33.98%chance
5155
OptionVotes
373
300
Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030?
Apr 20, 9:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
67.24%chance
574
OptionVotes
99
80
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against esophageal adenocarcinoma before 2028?
Feb 21, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
32.51%chance
440
OptionVotes
370
305
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