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Prediction markets for Essential
OptionVotes
185221
53989
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
29.94%chance
10332775
OptionVotes
1351
1104
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
13.3%chance
3813776
OptionVotes
1263
918
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
11%chance
286231
OptionVotes
1299
934
will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.
May 13, 4:45 PMMay 14, 6:59 AM
8.2%chance
261515
OptionVotes
1027
946
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?
Jul 3, 5:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
21%chance
231248
OptionVotes
1000
985
Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?
Nov 9, 9:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
1.6%chance
7578
OptionProbability
924
375
Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?
Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
68.73%chance
18421
OptionVotes
1005
942
The result, assuming the Gulf Stream System (AMOC) collapses. (aspirational or the opposite this market will ever close)
Aug 29, 1:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5120
OptionProbability
80
66
66
57
50
10
OptionVotes
170
84
What changes will Trump make to the Department of Education by the end of his term? Will he kill the Department and how?
Dec 19, 9:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
764
OptionProbability
26
20
20
11
8
8
7
What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?
Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
242
OptionProbability
66
11
11
11
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