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Paramount+ Schedules Aug. 22 Debut for ‘Dexter: Resurrection’ Episode 8
Authors
4
7 months ago
Prediction markets for Essential
OptionVotes
183139
54603
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
30.76%chance
9531424
OptionVotes
1365
1072
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
13.3%chance
3813776
OptionVotes
1263
918
If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
Jan 24, 11:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
898008
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11
7
0
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
11.93%chance
286210
OptionVotes
1201
946
OptionProbability
92
90
90
84
76
70
64
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62
54
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48
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24
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11
will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.
May 13, 4:45 PMMay 14, 6:59 AM
8.62%chance
251465
OptionVotes
977
951
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?
Jul 3, 5:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
21%chance
231248
OptionVotes
1000
985
Which Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) provisions will survive until 2029?
Jul 3, 9:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
5852
OptionProbability
65
63
50
50
47
47
47
47
46
41
41
37
Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?
Nov 9, 9:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
1.6%chance
7578
OptionProbability
924
375
Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?
Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
68.73%chance
18421
OptionVotes
1005
942
OptionProbability
19
17
17
17
17
11
Latest stories
Latest stories
- Paramount+ Schedules Aug. 22 Debut for ‘Dexter: Resurrection’ Episode 8Authors47 months ago

