European parties News

Iran’s Abbas Araghchi Rejects Concessions as Ali Larijani Considers NPT Withdrawal Ahead of European Snapback Sanctions Talks

1 year ago

EU or UK citizen granted US asylum for anti-immigration views by end of 2028?

Oct 16, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:58 PM

38.26%chance

71542

OptionVotes

YES

1270

787

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.35%chance

291467

OptionVotes

YES

1101

951

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

Jan 2, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171041

OptionProbability

7-10

4-6

11-14

>14

FIFA President be sacked?

Jul 29, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.56%chance

18959

OptionVotes

YES

233

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.83%chance

5949

OptionVotes

YES

1571

636

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

1392

718

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.31%chance

19601

OptionVotes

YES

1148

940

Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?

Mar 31, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.41%chance

20586

OptionVotes

YES

1088

792

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

8261

OptionVotes

YES

200

When will Volodymyr Zelenskyy announce national elections?

Mar 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

8247

OptionProbability

Announces elections contingent on ceasefire only

July 1 - December 31, 2026

January 1 - June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

Other

Never announces national elections

March 15 - April 15, 2026

April 15 - May 4, 2026 (before martial law expires)

May 4 - June 30, 2026

Before March 15, 2026

Will Germany attend a Ukraine peace summit with Russia that excludes the US before 2027?

Feb 9, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.17%chance

8193

OptionVotes

YES

269

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Latest stories

Aug 22, 2025
Aug 22, 2025
Middle East
US Foreign Policy
Politics
Iran’s Abbas Araghchi Rejects Concessions as Ali Larijani Considers NPT Withdrawal Ahead of European Snapback Sanctions Talks
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1 year ago

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European parties News

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EU or UK citizen granted US asylum for anti-immigration views by end of 2028?

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

FIFA President be sacked?

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

When will Volodymyr Zelenskyy announce national elections?

Will Germany attend a Ukraine peace summit with Russia that excludes the US before 2027?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

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