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Prediction markets for FARA
OptionVotes
1160
145
Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Jan 5, 3:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
73.62%chance
419292
OptionVotes
1649
478
OptionVotes
2000
500
Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
7.5%chance
272381
OptionVotes
1733
884
If Nigel Farage wins the Clacton by-election, will he be recalled anyway?
Jul 7, 2:17 PMJul 7, 2:05 PM
54.31%chance
161487
OptionVotes
1090
917
Does there exist at least 1 pair of humans which can telepathically communicate through a faraday cage?
Mar 27, 6:57 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
6.98%chance
8890
OptionVotes
434
87
Will a party Nigel Farage is a member of win the next UK General Election?
Feb 9, 3:25 AMAug 15, 10:59 PM
37.13%chance
19601
OptionVotes
130
77
Will anyone other than Farage and Binface get their deposit back in the 2026 Clacton by-election?
Jul 18, 1:38 AMAug 13, 10:59 PM
24.41%chance
15162
OptionVotes
176
57
Will Nigel Farage face a second Clacton byelection in 2026?
Jul 31, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.17%chance
10127
OptionVotes
102
99
If Count Binface wins in Clacton in 2026, will Nigel Farage be in parliament a year later?
Jul 8, 12:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.48%chance
794
OptionVotes
151
66
OptionProbability
49
17
17
17
If Farage loses the 2026 Clacton by-election, will the PM after the next general election be Reform?
Jul 7, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.83%chance
29
OptionVotes
105
86
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