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Prediction markets for Fire
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
40.08%chance
10224320
OptionVotes
2537
1522
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM
59.14%chance
956477
OptionVotes
1046
850
Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
87.94%chance
596459
OptionVotes
2046
1123
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?
Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
66.51%chance
576376
OptionVotes
1155
893
Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?
Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
24.44%chance
224116
OptionVotes
1759
569
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?
Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
18.92%chance
322864
OptionVotes
1213
898
Will the Lakers fire JJ Redick before his 4-year contract ends (in June 2028)?
Sep 30, 7:28 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM
55.54%chance
121742
OptionVotes
1118
895
Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?
Apr 15, 7:34 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
31.68%chance
301535
OptionVotes
1485
643
Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?
Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
61.15%chance
291309
OptionVotes
1046
944
Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?
Nov 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
46.8%chance
13761
OptionVotes
1256
319
Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
Aug 3, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.7%chance
10359
OptionVotes
1342
745
OptionVotes
1116
896
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