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Top stories

SpaceX Targets Early August Launch for Starship Flight 10 With Ship 37, Booster 16; Elon Musk Confirms

SpaceX Targets Early August Launch for Starship Flight 10 With Ship 37, Booster 16; Elon Musk Confirms

Authors

24

17 days ago

SpaceX Completes Single and Six-Engine Static Fire Tests on Starship 37 at Modified Pad 1 Ahead of Mid-August Flight 10 Launch

SpaceX Completes Single and Six-Engine Static Fire Tests on Starship 37 at Modified Pad 1 Ahead of Mid-August Flight 10 Launch

Authors

13

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Flight 10

When will Starship flight 10 happen?

Mar 31, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72178146

OptionProbability

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-08-24

Before 2025-08-16

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-07-16

Before 2025-07-08

97

89

63

23

0

0

0

0

0

By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?

Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

37137772

OptionProbability

Flight 15

Flight 12

2026-01-01

Flight 11

Flight 10

2024-09-01

2025-01-01

2025-07-01

Flight 7

2025-03-01

94

83

64

13

3

0

0

0

0

0

Starship Flight 10 will launch before New Glenn Flight 2

Jul 3, 6:40 AMDec 31, 6:32 AM

92.61%chance

134888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3541

282

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

Nov 30, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.42%chance

303657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

718

Will the Starship flight 10 ship be caught?

May 26, 7:22 PMDec 31, 8:21 PM

1%chance

153436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Before 2030, will any* country require that most people arriving by plane must take blood tests?

Mar 16, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.2%chance

171413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

534

Starship flight 10 soft touchdown?

May 28, 3:23 PMAug 14, 3:14 PM

38%chance

131139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

What happens to Starship S37 (Starship flight 10)?

Jul 30, 6:00 PMDec 31, 6:54 PM

7311

OptionProbability

gets to SECO

successfully deploys payload

Completes in space relight

survives reentry

soft splashdown

Blows up during Ground testing

63

54

46

37

34

6

Starship Flight 10 successfully deploys a payload?

May 28, 8:54 PMDec 31, 9:53 PM

60%chance

8263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will 10 or more starship flights be required for Artemis 3?

Feb 19, 5:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.52%chance

9217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

158

Will Heart Aerospace ES-30 make its first revenue flight (at least 100 km) before 2030?

Nov 15, 9:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

3215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

25

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

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