OptionProbability
Better, cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too.
With rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing.
Geothermal energy is worth watching.
Conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar.
Russia and China will test America’s commitment to its allies with “grey-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea.
Peace in Gaza will hold.
97
93
88
85
30
19
2027
Never/ongoing indefinitely
2026
2028
2029
2030
2031 or later
Null
43
25
11
5
4
1
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