Gemini 12 News
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Prediction markets for Gemini 12
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71.5%chance
233794
OptionVotes
1584
631
When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?
Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
292566
OptionProbability
72
56
32
11
0
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
64%chance
351950
OptionVotes
999
911
Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.49%chance
4460
OptionVotes
1460
940
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885