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Prediction markets for General License
Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
43%chance
8712384
OptionVotes
1151
869
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?
Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
27.34%chance
221255
OptionVotes
1157
913
At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies
Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.4%chance
71077
OptionVotes
1670
599
When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Aug 2, 11:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
8815
OptionProbability
88
6
2
2
1
1
0
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?
May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
20.56%chance
20801
OptionVotes
993
988
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.02%chance
20553
OptionVotes
1211
711
OptionVotes
143
70
Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?
Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.42%chance
565
OptionVotes
4007
3989
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