OptionVotes
YES
NO
22111
4523
OptionProbability
GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)
Cabinet level current us official visits greenland
Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028
Trump visits greenland
GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)
20+ story building built
Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)
Us has another military base at least 500 personnel
Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now
Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)
Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov
Greenland population falls below 40000
Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200
Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)
Greenland has a military
Greenland significantly changes its flag
Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers
Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it
Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay
USD is the used currency
40+ story building built
81
80
51
49
39
28
25
23
22
21
20
19
14
10
7
104
96
1243
933
Jeffrey Sachs
Huey Li (and the news)
SerpentZA
Laowhy86
Nicholas Kristof
Michael Pettis
Peter Hessler
James Fallows
Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business
Liziqi
Nathan Rich
Living in China
Jerry Kowal
Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.
Asia Society Policy Institute
Yale Center Beijing
Brookings Institution (China Center)
Blondie in China
Elon Musk
Bill Bishop, Sinocism
52
50
41
40