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Prediction markets for Genie
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
55
0
Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
Apr 14, 3:22 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
44%chance
632967
OptionVotes
1078
855
OptionVotes
1346
775
Will there be "compulsory genital inspection regime" in the USA by the end of Trump's term?
Jan 22, 1:22 PMJan 30, 10:59 PM
11.43%chance
19519
OptionVotes
278
36
Will the first clone of a genius demonstrate similar intelligence?
Mar 8, 11:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
61.53%chance
23481
OptionVotes
1105
912
Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055
Jun 29, 10:37 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM
30.65%chance
8146
OptionVotes
208
143
When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?
Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM
2130
OptionProbability
49
39
OptionProbability
50
50
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