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Ghost of Yōtei News

    Prediction markets for Ghost of Yōtei

    OptionProbability

    Other

    The Book of Abraham

    The Short, Swift Time of Gods on Earth

    Orality and Literacy by Walter Ong

    We Present Television

    Siddhartha (1922) by Herman Hesse

    The Lever of Riches

    The Sovereign Child

    Capitalist Realism

    The Tale of Genji

    planecrash – E.S. Yudwkosky

    Thomas Urquhart's Translation of Rabelais

    The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up

    The Cambridge Introduction to Jacques Lacan

    Breakdown in Pakistan: How Aid Is Eroding Institutions for Collective Action

    World War Z

    Lee Kuan Yew’s Memoirs

    The Affluent Society by John Kenneth Galbraith

    Invisible Cities / Life: A User's Manual

    We've Had a Hundred Years of Psychotherapy and the World's Getting Worse

    Leviathan

    How to Prevent Coups d’État

    Stabilizing an Unstable Economy

    The Invention of Science: A New History of the Scientific Revolution

    The Rule of Law

    Timefulness

    The Knowledge Machine

    The Inhabited Island

    The Ghost In My Brain

    A Secular Age

    Scenebux: A Novel

    Pharmaceutical Freedom: Why Patients Have a Right to Self-Medicate

    Aesopian Language in Russian Literature

    Bellum Catilinae -- The Catiline Conspiracy

    Coriolanus

    Fear and Trembling

    1984 by George Orwell

    Mother of Learning

    "Mistletoe and Memorandums" by Claude

    The Northern Caves

    Dictator Book Club: Yoweri Museveni’s Sowing The Mustard Seed

    The End of History and the Last Man

    The Bible

    The Last Temptation of Christ

    More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite, by Sebastian Mallaby

    28

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    0

    Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

    Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM
    23%chance
    19825357

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2080

    2056

    What will happen during Claude Opus 4.7 Plays Pokemon?

    May 3, 2:55 PMOct 10, 2:43 PM
    3914947

    OptionProbability

    Defeats Surge before step 5,969

    Defeats Erika before step 29,643

    Gets the lift key before step 9,615

    Defeats the champion

    Defeats Koga before step 19,086

    Defeats Blaine before step 29,925

    Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 30,275

    Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) before step 35,911

    Full team of 6 pokemon

    Gets HM05 (Flash)

    Gets the Bicycle

    Visits Seafoam Islands

    Finishes Rocket Hideout before step 13,222

    Catches Articuno, Moltres, or Zapdos

    Defeats Erika before step 23,533

    Finishes Pokemon Mansion by 29,487 steps

    Defeats Blaine before step 29,925

    Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch) before step 45,200

    Finishes 3F Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 3F switch)

    Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)

    50% Finishes first VR puzzle in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 2643 steps from first VR entrance to finish)

    Gets HM03 (surf) and the Gold Teeth in less than 13 Safari Zone attempts

    Gets HM03 (surf) and the Gold Teeth in less than 7 Safari Zone attempts

    Catches a Pokemon in the Safari Zone

    Completes Pokemon Mansion while the video stream is down

    Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni while the video stream is down

    Finishes first VR puzzle while the video stream is down

    Picks up Omanyte from the Fossil Scientist

    Changes the party further (from IVY/LUNA/ZIP/WEEDY/TIDE/FROST)

    Ivy reaches level 85

    Video stream freezes again after current incident (frozen on Pokemon Mansion) is fixed

    Defeats the champion before 40,000 steps

    Defeats the champion before 50,000 steps

    Defeats the champion before 75,000 steps

    Stream reaches 1000 viewers at any time

    Catches Mewtwo

    New run before end of June

    Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

    Gets HM02 (Fly)

    Records at least 100 unique Pokemon in the Pokedex (caught/evolved, not just seen)

    Stores an item in the PC

    Gets trapped in a Cycling Road pocket without fly

    Run ends to reset with a model not branded as Haiku, Sonnet, or Opus

    Any kind of intentional rollback due to the video issues

    BUZZ reaches level 30

    Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 7,998

    Defeats Sabrina before step 16,804

    Teaches DIG

    Uses a Poke Doll on the Pokemon Tower ghost

    Finishes the gyms in the same order as Opus 4.6 (Brock->Misty->Surge->Sabrina->Koga->Erika->Blaine>Giovanni)

    Runs out of money while attempting safari zone

    Finishes Silph Co. before step 15,855

    Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 15,000

    Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 1542 steps from start to finish)

    50% Finishes Silph Co. in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 498 steps from start to finish)

    Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 20,000

    Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 25,000

    Defeats Blaine before Sabrina

    Catches Moltres

    Catches Zapdos

    Finishes VR while the video stream is down

    Defeats the champion while video stream is down

    Defeats the champion before 30,000 steps

    Stream is still down May 18th

    Stream is still down June 1st

    Completes the final boulder puzzle, then returns to Route 22 instead of continuing to the Indigo Plateau

    100

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    15

    10

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    1

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    0

    What scapegoat will make us all sing "kumbaya" by 2030?

    Feb 11, 11:26 PMFeb 13, 10:59 PM
    145045

    OptionProbability

    No such scapegoat will manifest

    planet-killing asteroid

    Other

    Jesus Christ (second coming)

    Rogue AGI

    Me (specifically me, Jessica Evans)

    previously unknown virus

    invasive spores

    unknown energy state

    alien ghosts

    telepathic dolphins

    41

    12

    11

    9

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    4

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    3

    1

    1

    Who will appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

    Mar 25, 10:17 AMMay 7, 11:59 AM
    674232

    OptionProbability

    Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)

    Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)

    Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)

    Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)

    Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)

    Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)

    Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)

    Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)

    Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)

    Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)

    Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)

    Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)

    Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)

    Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)

    Pom Klementieff (Mantis)

    David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)

    Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)

    Chris Hemsworth (Thor)

    Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)

    Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)

    Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)

    Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)

    Benedict Wong (Wong)

    Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)

    Vin Diesel (Groot)

    Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)

    Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)

    Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)

    Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)

    Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)

    Karen Gillan (Nebula)

    Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)

    Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)

    Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)

    Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)

    Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)

    Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)

    Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)

    Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)

    Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)

    Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)

    Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)

    Winston Duke (M'Baku)

    Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)

    Paul Bettany (Vision)

    Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)

    Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)

    Danai Gurira (Okoye)

    Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)

    Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)

    Tom Hiddleston (Loki)

    Mahershala Ali (Blade)

    Sean Gunn (Kraglin)

    Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)

    Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)

    Wil Deusner (Skaar)

    Gemma Chan (Sersi)

    Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)

    Lia McHugh (Sprite)

    Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)

    Barry Keoghan (Druig)

    Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)

    Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)

    Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)

    Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)

    Seth Green (Howard the Duck)

    Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)

    Dave Bautista (Drax)

    Angelina Jolie (Thena)

    Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)

    Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)

    Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)

    Emilia Clarke (G'iah)

    Ralph Ineson (Galactus)

    May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)

    Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)

    Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)

    Brett Goldstein (Hercules)

    Don Lee (Gilgamesh)

    Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)

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    OptionProbability

    Jeopardy

    Sesame Street

    Antiques Roadshow

    Wheel of Fortune

    White Lotus

    Simpsons

    Battlebots

    Cyberchase

    Spongebob Squarepants

    Homestar Runner

    Peppa Pig

    Bobs Burgers

    Survivor

    South Park

    Rick and Morty

    Shark Tank

    Ancient Aliens

    Paw patrol

    Family Guy

    NCIS

    Bluey

    Always Sunny in Philadelphia

    Ghost Adventures

    Storage Wars

    Deadliest Catch

    Family Feud

    Black Mirror

    Pawn Stars

    Phineas and Ferb

    Severence

    American Pickers

    Abbott Elementry

    Teen Titans Go!

    Robot Chicken

    Beavis and Butt Head

    Law & Order (revival)

    The Incredible Dr Pol

    Ghost Hunters

    Impractical Jokers

    American Horror Story

    Law & Order: SVU

    Grey's Anatomy

    Forged in Fire

    The Bear

    Hazbin Hotel

    Is it Cake

    American Dad

    True Detective

    Futurama

    Curb Your Enthusiasm

    Red vs Blue

    Stranger Things

    Late show with Stephen Colbert

    99

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    66

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    21

    17

    2

    0

    OptionProbability

    Mars

    Moon

    A Langrage Point

    Other

    Venus

    Titan

    Europa

    Yes. It might even be a ghost town (or colony) by then.

    74

    25

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    184

    85

    Do ghosts exist👻?

    Jun 14, 2:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    5.62%chance
    151690

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1515

    876

    OptionProbability

    You can go in if your boat is in this marina right now.

    If there is a fire and your boat stored here burns up partially and is not seaworthy, can you go in?

    If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, are you allowed in?

    If you owned a boat which is here, but it's been molecularly exchanged for identical but different atoms by aliens, you can go in

    If your boat here sinks can you go in?

    If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, and the only one who remembers who is still alive is you, and you paid cash, are you allowed in?

    You can go in if you are a guest of someone who is a boat owner.

    The dock owner is not allowed to go in, unless he is or is with a boat owner

    Only official owners of a specific but unspecified boat located on the dock are allowed through

    You can go in if you own a real live seaworthy boat now anywhere in the world.

    If you privately own the company that owns the boat, you may enter

    If you stole a boat, parked it here with a legal berth lease contract, then left, and return, can you go in?

    If you are a shareholder in the company that owns the boat, you may pass

    If California becomes officially Marxist, where ownership is an exclusive right of the state, can you anyone go in at all?

    If the 24 hour video surveillance of the marina is disabled, that invalidates that sign immediately above, creating a presumption that all the signs on the fence are false, and making it the case that only non-boat owners are allowed.

    You can go in if you own any kind of boat in any condition in the world, including toy boats, model boats, Lego boats, virtual boats in baldurs gate etc.

    The gate will prevent all non-boat owners from passing. Guests and passengers must swim

    The sign isn't about who is allowed through, it's about the contents of what's on the other side. Everything beyond the fence is a Boat Owner.

    If you own 1% of a boat here you can go in

    You can go through if you open the gate

    You can go in if your spouse is a boat owner

    If you own half a boat stored here legally you can go in

    Joshua, byrne, marcus, Odoacre, firstuserhere, and at least one legalistic fan from the UAW strike claim horror show will participate

    You can go in if you have no boat, but plan to buy one someday and have a contract for a reserved berth space

    You can go through if you have a contracted and paid berth here.

    You can go in if you have a berth contract but are behind in payment.

    Bonus: people who own three boats stored here can alternate sleeping arrangements so that in any seven day period they never sleep in one more than 3 days, legally?

    This market will entirely be excluded from leagues

    You can go in if you own a Binary Oxidizing Acetylitic Thermometer.

    You can go in if you are a former boat owner but have converted it to a sailplane, which is here.

    You can go in if you are a leashed dog that doesn't own a boat, but is with a boat owner

    You can go in if you have a rental boat stored here.

    Ghosts are allowed because they say B.O.O. (Boat Owners Only), which is the password

    You can go in if your grandpa is a boat owner

    You can go in if you are ex navy.

    This market gets more than 100 bettors

    86

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    25

    20

    18

    OptionProbability

    Chang'e 7

    Griffin Mission 1

    Blue Ghost M2

    IM-3

    Blue Moon MK1

    Hakuto-R 3

    Starship HLS

    84

    55

    41

    34

    13

    3

    2

    OptionProbability

    Old Catholic

    ICAB

    Liberal Catholic

    Mystical (directly by Jesus an apostle etc)

    All the above

    Larping Thuc bishop

    Ghost of Ngo Dinh Thuc

    18

    14

    14

    14

    14

    12

    12

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