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Prediction markets for Google Assistant
Which of the following products will google discontinue by 2030?
Feb 23, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
12210021
OptionProbability
99
87
86
83
82
79
77
75
71
71
68
62
61
55
52
51
50
39
37
37
36
36
34
33
33
33
32
31
31
28
28
21
20
20
19
14
12
11
11
9
8
8
7
Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)
Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
82.44%chance
443737
OptionVotes
2178
414
Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?
Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
51.46%chance
42257
OptionVotes
1030
971
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
64%chance
351950
OptionVotes
999
911
2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today
Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
88.83%chance
141045
OptionVotes
1519
876
Which incumbent voice assistant will be first to incorporate an LLM?
Apr 5, 11:09 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
141013
OptionProbability
80
11
8
2
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
80.25%chance
19871
OptionVotes
1388
750
Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?
Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.15%chance
15582
OptionVotes
226
110
Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?
Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45.27%chance
6315
OptionVotes
1100
909
Will Waymo support playing from Spotify without the Google Assistant app before 2026?
Oct 27, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
66.07%chance
455
OptionVotes
140
72
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