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Apple Discusses Using Google Gemini to Overhaul Siri
Authors
70
4 months ago
Prediction markets for Google Assistant
Which of the following products will google discontinue by 2030?
Feb 23, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
12210021
OptionProbability
99
87
86
83
82
79
77
75
71
71
68
62
61
55
52
51
50
39
37
37
36
36
34
33
33
33
32
31
31
28
28
21
20
20
19
14
12
11
11
9
8
8
7
Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)
Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
82.39%chance
473852
OptionVotes
2174
415
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
16.77%chance
252719
OptionVotes
1920
176
Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?
Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50.95%chance
52267
OptionVotes
1019
981
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
58.62%chance
362030
OptionVotes
1079
784
2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today
Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
88.83%chance
141045
OptionVotes
1519
876
Which incumbent voice assistant will be first to incorporate an LLM?
Apr 5, 11:09 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
141013
OptionProbability
80
11
8
2
Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?
Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.15%chance
15582
OptionVotes
226
110
Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?
Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
42.45%chance
8445
OptionVotes
1164
859
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