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Prediction markets for Google Assistant
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.54%chance
17534125
OptionVotes
14201
7469
Which of the following products will google discontinue by 2030?
Feb 23, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
12310059
OptionProbability
99
87
83
82
79
77
77
75
71
71
68
62
61
52
51
50
46
39
37
37
36
36
34
33
33
33
32
31
31
28
21
20
20
19
14
12
11
11
11
9
8
8
7
Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?
Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM
58.71%chance
214219
OptionVotes
1192
839
Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?
Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50.95%chance
52267
OptionVotes
1019
981
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
62.94%chance
372146
OptionVotes
1014
884
EPL: Will Chelsea beat Sunderland by 2 or more goals?
Oct 31, 2:37 PMNov 8, 1:57 PM
29.53%chance
151616
OptionVotes
1545
647
Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?
Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
32.16%chance
9722
OptionVotes
1452
689
NFL Week 9: Will Buffalo Bills beat Minnesota Vikings by 4 or more points?
Nov 4, 3:46 PMNov 10, 1:12 AM
46%chance
6281
OptionVotes
1083
923
NFL International Series (Week 9): Will Cincinnati Bengals beat Atlanta Falcons by 4 or more points?
Nov 3, 11:28 PMNov 8, 2:27 PM
54.55%chance
5148
OptionVotes
1096
913
NFL Week 9: Will New Orleans Saints beat Cleveland Browns by 3 or more points?
Nov 3, 11:33 PMNov 8, 5:57 PM
50.15%chance
3129
OptionVotes
1003
997
OptionVotes
1060
943
EPL: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa on November 8, 2026?
Nov 7, 6:32 AMNov 8, 4:27 PM
46.54%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
988
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