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Google Cloud News

    Prediction markets for Google Cloud

    Taalas high speed inference chip (props)

    Mar 13, 1:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    27772

    OptionProbability

    Second model release by 2027-01-01

    Model with ≥30B parameters by 2027-01-01

    Partnership with AWS, Google Cloud, or Azure by 2028-01-01

    Model API price <10% of OpenRouter by 2028-01-01

    Three distinct models by 2027-07-01

    Chip released ≤90 days after a model release by 2028-01-01

    Model with ≥120B parameters by 2027-07-01

    At least 2 competitors launch model-specific inference ASICs by 2028-01-01

    ASIC inference hardware market ≥$50B annually by 2030-01-01

    ≥10k tokens/sec on ≥120B model by 2027-07-01

    Ten distinct models by 2028-01-01

    Model with ≥390B parameters by 2028-01-01

    Any Taalas chip available for direct consumer purchase by 2028-01-01

    Any consumer hardware running ≥10B model at ≥1000 tok/s by 2028-01-01

    Model API price <1% of OpenRouter by 2028-01-01

    ≥10k tokens/sec on ≥390B model by 2028-01-01

    ≥5 distinct models priced <10% of OpenRouter by 2028-01-01

    Taalas annual revenue ≥$1B by 2029-01-01

    77

    53

    51

    47

    46

    45

    36

    32

    28

    24

    24

    24

    24

    21

    19

    17

    17

    11

    OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

    Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    8.28%chance
    264385

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3328

    300

    Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

    Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    45.03%chance
    302990

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1105

    905

    When do I next become fully employed?

    Aug 27, 6:46 PMJan 1, 7:25 PM
    42223

    OptionProbability

    Q2 2026

    Q3 2026

    Q4 2026

    >=2027

    Q1 2026

    September 2025

    October 2025

    November 2025

    December 2025

    27

    23

    20

    20

    6

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

    Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    7.41%chance
    151460

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    353

    28

    Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

    Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    36.23%chance
    2160

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    133

    75

    Iran Conflict Props

    Oct 21, 5:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    232

    OptionProbability

    US or Israel attacks Pickaxe Mountain before Dec 15, 2026

    Will Iran hit a hyperscaler data center in the Gulf before 2027?

    Will US/Israeli strikes cause a nationwide or multi-province power blackout in Iran lasting at least 24 hours before 2027?

    Will all Iran–Iraq land border crossings close to commercial freight simultaneously for 48+ hours before Dec 31, 2026?

    43

    30

    18

    17

    Favorite cloud-computing platform?

    Oct 12, 5:37 PMOct 13, 5:36 PM
    231

    OptionProbability

    Amazon AWS

    Microsoft Azure

    Google Cloud

    Other

    39

    20

    20

    20

    Will Google go defunct before 2050?

    Oct 6, 11:26 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM
    11.81%chance
    110

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    110

    99

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